preprint
وصول مفتوح
A computed 95% confidence interval does cover the true value with probability 0.95 if epistemically interpreted
Research footprint
At a glance
- الاستشهادات
- 0
- المراجع
- 0
- Comments
- 0
Paper overview
Abstract
Suppose the lifetime of a large sample of batteries in routine use is measured. A confidence interval is computed to 394 plus/minus 1.96 times 4.6 days. The standard interpretation is that if we repeatedly draw samples and compute confidence intervals, about 95% of the intervals will cover the unknown true lifetime. What can be said about the particular interval 394 plus/minus 1.96 times 4.6 has not been clear. We clarify this by using an epistemic interpretation of probability. The conclusion is that a realised (computed) confidence interval covers the parameter with the probability given by the confidence level is a valid statement, unless there are relevant and recognisable subsets of the sample.
Record transparency
Publication details
- DOI
- 10.48550/arxiv.2402.10000
- OpenAlex
- W4391901140
- Document type
- preprint
- Language
- EN
- Source
- arXiv (Cornell University)
- Last metadata update
Comments
تسجيل الدخول للانضمام إلى النقاش.