The heterogeneous impact of particulate matter on solar performance in a megacity: The case of Seoul

Megacities play an essential role in accelerating the energy transition. Megacities need to decarbonize energy systems by taking transformative actions on photovoltaic (PV) plants. However, particulate matter 10 (PM10) accumulated on PVs may decrease the amount of photovoltaic power generation (PPG), preventing the further expansion of PV installation. This study identifies the heterogeneous effects of PM10 by using quantile regression and by including small-scale PVs to understand subgroup differences across the distribution of PPG. This differs from previous studies, which only addressed its homogeneous effects. The results show that the direction of PM10′s impact on PPG is consistent with previous studies and that the effect of PM10 is different for each quantile. It turned out that accumulated PM10 had a heterogeneous effect on the PPG quantile, and the absolute value of PM10 was the largest when the PPG quantile was low. This enables a richer explanation of the impact of PM10 on PPG. By identifying possible obstacles related to PM10, this research contributes to facilitating renewable-led municipal energy policy and proposes effective management to improve the reliability of solar energy systems.