Forecasting and Anomaly Detection in Bitcoin Historical Data

With the rapid development of the global economy and technology, Bitcoin trading has become an important channel for investors seeking wealth. However, its extreme price volatility presents significant risks and uncertainties, making it crucial to understand the driving factors behind these fluctuations. This research project analyzes Bitcoin price movements during the second half of 2024, a period characterized by dramatic price increases, particularly at year-end. Using a combination of visualization methods, ARIMA forecasting models, and isolation forest anomaly detection algorithms, the study examined the relationship between Bitcoin prices and major socioeconomic events. The findings revealed that the U.S. presidential election was the primary factor influencing Bitcoin’s significant price changes during this period. While technical analysis through ARIMA modeling provided valuable insights into price patterns, the strong correlation with political events demonstrated that major socioeconomic factors can substantially impact cryptocurrency markets. These results offer investors a more comprehensive framework for cryptocurrency investment decision-making, highlighting the importance of considering both technical indicators and external event impacts when navigating the volatile Bitcoin market.