Deterrent Impact of Penal Policies on Telecom-Fraud in China: A Spatial and Empirical Analysis

Telecom-fraud has grown rapidly in China, prompting concerns about the effectiveness of punitive policies. Drawing on deterrence theory, this study examines how legally prescribed aggravating factors shape subsequent fraud trends. Using 108,478 cases from 2014 to 2021 and coding aggravators specified in the 2011, 2016, and 2021 judicial interpretations, we analyze spatial patterns and estimate longitudinal Poisson models for completed and attempted offenses. Findings show that aggravators involving serious harm, prior punishment, and victim vulnerability predict declines in later case counts, whereas technologically sophisticated or organizationally coordinated schemes correspond to increases. The results indicate selective rather than uniform deterrence and highlight the need to complement punitive measures with regulatory and technological interventions.