MODELING THE DEPENDENCE STRUCTURE BETWEEN BITCOIN, GOLD, AND EQUITY MARKETS IN TIMES OF CRISIS: A COPULA-BASED PERSPECTIVE

Abstract This paper investigates whether Bitcoin serves as a safe haven and a diversification tool for both developed and emerging stock markets during the COVID-19 crisis, in comparison with gold. The analysis covers daily data from June 18, 2012, to May 25, 2020, across a representative set of developed (S&P500, FTSE100, DAX, CAC40, Nikkei225, Ibex35) and emerging (Shanghai, Nifty50, Ibovespa, MOEX) equity markets, providing a comprehensive view of asset interactions in different financial environments. Methodologically, we employ a two-step approach: an EGARCH model to estimate time-varying volatility, followed by a copula-based framework to capture nonlinear and asymmetric dependence structures. This combination allows for a nuanced assessment of asset behavior under both tranquil and crisis conditions. The results show that Bitcoin maintains weak dependence on developed equity markets during the COVID-19 period but fails to display consistent safe-haven characteristics under extreme stress. Gold, by contrast, continues to act as a reliable hedge, confirming its traditional role in protecting portfolios against market downturns. Overall, these findings suggest that while Bitcoin may provide diversification benefits under normal circumstances, it cannot yet replace gold as a robust safe-haven asset. For portfolio managers, this highlights the importance of gold in risk management, while underscoring Bitcoin’s evolving yet still uncertain role in global financial markets.