Structural Complexities and Dependencies in Layered Security: Baking in Deterrence through Target Shifting

This study examined how defense complexity and dependency, expected value (EV), rewards, and individual characteristics influence target selection for multi-layered security systems. Participants (N = 366) selected targets with one, two, or three security layers across 12 scenarios where EV was held constant within scenarios. We discovered (a) when the structure of security layers was independent, participants were more likely to choose single-layer targets, highlighting the role of choice architecture in shaping adversarial preferences; (b) rewards (incentivized vs. non-incentivized) did not significantly affect target selection; (c) target choice followed a linear and quadratic relationship with EV, with multi-layered targets most preferred at moderate EVs, and (d) individual traits, such as meanness and financial risk-taking, predicted preference towards single-layer targets and boldness towards multiple security layers. These findings demonstrate that structural complexity and decision framing can meaningfully influence attacker behavior and provide practical insights for designing more effective, deterrence-based security strategies.