Operation Reserve Usage Cost Allocation Method Based on Prediction Deviation Influence Degree

In order to accurately evaluate the difference of the influence of different factors on the operation reserve utilization, and reasonably apportion the operation reserve utilization cost generated by the operation of power grid, this paper proposed an operation reserve utilization cost allocation method based on the influence degree of prediction deviation. The ideal operation scheme will be constructed to eliminate the influence of a certain influencing factor on the power grid operation by adopting the control variable method. The predicted deviation influence degree is defined as the ratio of the expected operational reserve usage cost to the actual operational reserve usage cost under the ideal operation scheme. This index can measure the degree of influence of different influencing factors on the actual operation reserve usage cost. Different influencing factors correspond to market entities that will share the cost of operation reserve use, based on their predicted deviation influence index value. Finally, a numerical example based on the actual data of a provincial power grid was constructed to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method. The example results show that, compared with the traditional evaluation method, the operating reserve usage cost shared by market members is directly related to the impact degree of forecast deviation, but not directly related to the degree of forecast deviation.