Research on Construct Scenario-Response Emergency Model of Dam Break

Abstract Scientific prediction and prevention of unexpected events are the key issues in emergency treatment. To tackle this problem, according to the common characteristics of dams collapsing, environmental pollution and other unexpected events with energy release, based on the idea of “Scenario-Response” and by constructing the physical model of the dam-break event. To analyzing the various reasons and the principle of disaster of the emergencies, and constructing mathematical intelligent prediction model based on the analysis of the factors in physical model, then analyzing the degree of control caused by the disaster factors through the mathematical intelligent prediction model, at last, proposed a prediction calculation formula for the emergency. Extensive simulation on the Jingjiang section of the Yangtze River realized the scientifically prediction method of dam-break event, and well solved the problem of the prediction and prevention scientifically for the emergency with energy release.