Sociometric approaches for managing military units and predicting of behavior of military personnel

In the Republic of Kazakhstan military service becomes attractive primarily for that category of people who have no opportunity to acquire high quality vocational or higher education, decent income by the speciality available, or those who have not yet identified themselves professionally and socially. Its a serious problem how to ensure ability of military units to execute their service duties in conditions of more and more increasing requirements for professional competences of military personnel, increased intellectualization of military service when the quality of “human material” often is not corresponding to the required standards. This problem in the national and foreign science is still being developed and has no final solutions accessible for the scientific society. This article presents an effort to offer specialists in the military administration area one of probable tools to forecast successfulness of execution of professional tasks by military units based on results of sociometric studies and algorithms of plotting Bayesian networks. Using these tools a military leader will be able to evaluate effectiveness of his managerial activity, correct mechanisms of individual and mentoring activity with regard to individual servicemen, provide an opportunity to eliminate risks of failing to fulfill professional tasks on time and failing to ensure combat readiness of entrusted military team.