Research and Forecasting of the FTSE100 Index over Long Time Series

In order to research the UK and Global stock market, FTSE100 index is one of the most important values to study. This paper uses several models to forecast the future curve of the FTSE100 and compare these models to find a best way on forecasting. Then by analyzing the timeseries, the author shows several factors that might affect the timeseries which will be useful on the further forecast of the market. By using the simple forecast method, including Mean, Naïve, Snaive and Drift, Holt and Holt-winter model, and ARIMA model on the closing price of FTSE100 from Feb.2004 to Feb.2024. The result show that Holt-winter is the best model, and the mean is the worst. Also, by considering the 100 companies of the FTSE100 the factors that will affect the time series are Energy Boom, Global Economy, and Foreign Exchange Market. Therefore, the article might give investors some idea about the UK stock market.